RREA Blog



Bubble Radar

Below is a reprint of an Article by Ali Anari that was found in the July 2011 Tierra Grande Magazine – I think this is great information for consumers and real estate professionals!

During the past decade, Americans witnessed a home price bubble develop and then burst.  The aftermath showed how broadly these bubbles impact the U.S. economy.

To monitor real estate price movements leading to price bubbles, a Real Estate Center research program developed economic indicators that help detect bubbles at both the national and regional levels.

Detecting Bubbles

Real estate bubbles are rapid rises in real estate prices not related to or driven by economic fundamentals, followed by rapid price declines.  In residential real estate markets, property rents, family income and population are economic fundamentals for house prices.  That is, in the long run, home prices are driven mainly by these three economic indicators.  In the short run, the availability and costs of residential mortgage loans, changes in local job markets and imbalances between housing supply and demand can boost home prices, though these are not economic fundamentals.

Economists have developed several economic indicators for monitoring and forecasting real estate price movements by investigating the relationships between economic fundamentals and real estate prices.  Comparisons of long-term real estate price forecasts with their short-term price fluctuations can provide insights into the probable directions of prices.

The Real Estate Center has developed two major economic indicators for monitoring residential real estate prices:  housing costs as a percentage of total family income; and, sales-price-to-rent ratio.  A Center research study (see Center Publication 1944, “Consumer Spending Survey:  Texas Downturn had an Upside”) found that the larger the share of housing expenditures in consumers’ budgets in large metro areas, the more home prices declined from 2007 to 2009.  That study showed the importance of monitoring the percentage of family income spent on housing as a leading indicator for future home price movements.  This indicator offers insights into the likely growth rates of home prices in a region.

Recently released 2009 housing data from the U.S. Census Bureau allowed the Center to investigate whether changes in home prices in Texas metropolitan areas from 2007 to 2009 were related to share of housing costs in family incomes.  The research shows that home price appreciation was lower in Texas cities where housing costs represented a larger portion of family income.

The sales-price-to-rent ratio also can predict real estate price bubbles.  This idea is borrowed from asset pricing literature and the stock market, where the ratio of stock prices to dividends, earnings or profits is used to determine whether stock prices are overvalued or undervalued.  Stock prices are the discounted values of expected future earnings–the larger the expected future earnings, the higher the stock prices.  If expectations prove unrealistic, stock prices generally fall.

Price-to-rent ratios in real estate markets resemble stock-price-to-earnings ratios in stock markets.  Large ratios of home prices to annual rents are indications of potential home price bubbles.  Estimating price-to-rent ratios for Texas metropolitan areas and comparing them with national averages, the Center asserted in two previous articles that the risk of a price bubble in the Texas residential markets was low (see Center publications 1731, “Bubble Talk” [July 2005] and 1854, “Bubble Watch 2008” [April 2008]).

Great Recession Housing Costs, Prices

The median value of owner-occupied housing units in the United States fell 4.7 percent from 2007-09, from $194,000 to $185,000 [see table].  Over the period, only two Texas metro areas, Tyler and Victoria, recorded home price declines.  The median value of owner-occupied housing units in Victoria and Tyler fell 3 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively, from 2007 to 2009.

Odessa had the largest percentage of home price appreciation (28.3 percent) followed by Abilene (13.7 percent), Beaumont-Port Arthur (13 percent), Midland (12.1 percent) and El Paso (11.1 percent).  Home price appreciation in the Odessa and Midland petroplexes likely was influenced by record high oil prices in 2008 when the price of West Texas intermediate crude oil reached an all-time high of $140.20 per barrel.

The state’s larger metropolitan areas also reported home price appreciation during the Great Recession.  Austin-Round Rock experienced the largest increase (6.7 percent) followed by San Antonio (5.5 percent), Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington (3 percent), and Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown (3 percent).

Housing costs include property taxes, insurance expenses, maintenance costs and mortgage costs.  Housing costs as a percentage of total income in all Texas metro areas were lower than the national average of 25 percent, except in Brownsville-Harlingen (26.5 percent), Laredo (28.7 percent) and McAllen-Edinburg-Mission (25.7 percent).  The higher than national average percentages of housing costs in these three metro areas mainly reflect lower total family incomes rather than higher housing costs caused by higher home prices.

Odessa housing costs represented the lowest percentage of income (17.7 percent), followed by Midland (19.6 percent), Beaumont-Port Arthur (19.6 percent) and Longview (20.6 percent).

Among the larger metro areas, Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington had housing costs representing the highest percentage of total family incomes (24.3 percent) followed by Austin-Round Rock (24 percent), Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown (23.3 percent) and San Antonio (22.6 percent), all lower than the national average of 25 percent.

Plotting home price appreciation in the Great Recession against the housing costs as a percentage of total income for Texas metropolitan areas in 2007 reveals a negative relationship between home price appreciation and share of housing costs.  The larger the share of housing costs, the smaller the home price appreciation.

Texas, U.S. Sales-Price-to-Rent Ratios

Sales-price-to-rent ratios for all the state’s metro areas in 2009 were smaller than the national average of 18.3.  Austin-Round Rock ha the largest price-to-rent ratio (17.4) followed by Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington (14.7) and El Paso (14.6).  San Angelo has the smallest price-to-rent ratio (10.1) followed by Odessa (10.3) and Brownsville-Harlingen (10.9).

Comparisons of housing costs as percentages of family income and price-to-rent ratios for the state’s metropolitan areas with the corresponding national averages once again show that the risk of a major home price decline is low in the foreseeable future and that Texas has a healthy residential real estate market.

 

 

 

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FREE Event at RREA- Kingdom Dog Ministries

Save the Date! June 3rd, 2012 at 6pm

At Register Real Estate Advisors
1614 Louetta Rd. Ste I
Spring, TX 77388

Kingdom Dog Ministries

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WBM #60 – Curb Appeal

It’s White Board Monday again! This week is on curb appeal, those little things you can do to keep the attention of potential buyers and convert them to real buyers. Enjoy and let me know if there is anyhting I can do to help you sell your home. ann@rrea.com

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Moving to Spring with ExxonMobil

The city of Spring has grown over the last decade.  It has many restaurants, shopping areas, and offers entertainment.  One of the great summer spots is Splashtown located right off of I45 North.  The Hardy Toll Road gives Spring residents easy access to Houston’s downtown destinations and Bush International Airport.  Going north on I45, The Woodlands offers wonderful shopping and entertainment.  Even further north you can reach Lake Conroe for summer fun and many gold courses. The new ExxonMobil Campus is being built in Spring, Texas close to The Woodlands. This will bring a lot of demand for housing into the area over the next few years.

Old Town Spring is a quaint collection of turn-of-the-century buildings that are a favorite shopping spot and tourist destination. Over 150 restaurants, museums, art galleries, and shops occupy the vintage structures. If you live in Spring, you can enjoy the annual Crawfish Festival. The unique shopping opportunites in Old Town Spring draw people from all over Texas.

Spring’s housing inventory has many lovely median priced residents.  Benders Landing Estates is a beautiful acreage community located just minutes from the Hardy Toll Road.  Schools, restaurants, entertainment venues, and medical facilities are all close by when you live in Spring, Texas.  If you are interested in moving or relocating to the Spring, Woodlands, or Old Town Spring area, please give us a call at Register Real Estate Advisors.  We would love to help you with all of your real estate needs – 281.288.3500.

Video of Spring -

 

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Property Taxpayer Remedies in Texas

It’s that time of year when we learn what the tax value of our house is going to be. If you received your appraisal with a letter, this was probably with it. In case you lost it, here it is again. This is a reprint from the flier that Susan Combs sent out to homeowners, the Texas Comptroller of Public Accountants.

Property Tax Assistance – January 2012

You are entitled to an explanation of the remedies available to you when you are not satisfied with the appraised value assigned to your property by your appraisal district. The Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts is required to publish an explanation of the remedies available to taxpayers and procedures to be followed in seeking remedial action. The Comptroller also must include advice on preparing and presenting a protest.

The Legislature further directs that copies of this document be made readily available to taxpayers at no cost. The chief appraiser of an appraisal district may provide a copy with the Notice of Appraised Value mailed to property owners to explain the time and procedures used in protesting the value of their property. The chief appraiser must provide another copy to property owners initiating protests.

The first step in exercising your rights under the Tax Code is to protest your property’s appraised value. The following remedies only address appraised values and related matters. Government spending and taxation are not the subject of this publication and must be addressed by local taxing units.

How to Protest Property Value
If the appraisal district appraises your property at a higher amount than in the previous year, state law requires the appraisal district to send a notice by May 1, or by April 1 if your property is a residential homestead, or as soon as practical thereafter. The notice must separate the appraised value of real and personal property and show an estimate of how much tax you would have to pay based on the same tax rate your city, county, school district and any special purpose district set the previous year.

The notice will also include the date and place the ARB will begin hearing protests and may tell you whether your appraisal district has an informal meeting process to resolve your concerns. If you are dissatisfied with your appraised value or if errors exist in the appraisal records regarding your property, you should file a Notice of Protest with the ARB.

Appraisal districts in counties with a population of 500,000 or more must provide for electronic filing of a protest for excessive appraisal or unequal appraisal on property for which a residence homestead exemption has been granted, including electronic communications regarding the protest. Electronic filing systems are not required to be made available to taxpayers using tax agents. Appraisal districts that have a Website and are in counties with a population of more than 250,000 but less than 500,000 must provide for electronic filing, and counties with a population of 250, 000 or less must do so by Jan. 1, 2013. There are no special provisions in these smaller appraisal districts for taxpayers with agents.

What Can be Protested
The Notice of Protest may be filed using the prescribed form on the Comptroller’s Web site: www.window.state.tx.us/taxinfo/taxforms/50-132.pdf. The notice need not be on this form. Your notice of protest is sufficient if it identifies (1) the protesting person claiming an ownership interest in the property, (2) the property that is the subject of the protest and (3) dissatisfaction with a determination of the appraisal district.

You may protest the value on your property in the following situations:
• the value the appraisal district placed on your property is too high;
• your property is unequally appraised;
• the appraisal district denied a special appraisal, such as open-space land, or incorrectly denied your exemption application;
• the appraisal district failed to provide you with required notices; or
• other matters prescribed by Tex. Tax Code §41.41(a).

How to Resolve Concerns Informally
Many appraisal districts will informally review your concerns with you and try to resolve your objections. It is very important, however, that you preserve your right to protest to the ARB by filing your Notice of Protest before the deadline, even if you expect to resolve your concerns at the informal meeting with the appraisal district.

Find out the process your appraisal district follows. Try to discuss your protest issue with the appraisal office in advance. Ask one of the appraisal district’s appraisers to explain how the district arrived at the value of your property. Be sure the property description is correct and that the measurements for your home or business and lot are accurate. Many appraisal districts have this information online.

What is an ARB?
The ARB is an independent, impartial group of citizens authorized to resolve disputes between taxpayers and the appraisal district. Although, in most counties, the ARB is appointed by the appraisal district board of directors, it is not controlled by the appraisal district.

Bringing a protest before the ARB is a formal process; it is somewhat like taking a case to court for resolution. The ARB must follow certain procedures that may be unfamiliar to you. It must base its decisions on facts it hears from you and the appraisal district to decide whether the appraisal district has acted properly in determining the value of your property.

ARB members cannot discuss your case with anyone outside of the hearing. You should know, however, that your protest hearing is open to the public; anyone can sit in and listen to the case.

When are Protests Filed?
You should file your Notice of Protest with the ARB no later than 30 days after the appraisal district mailed the Notice of Appraised Value. You may request an evening or weekend hearing. The ARB will notify you at least 15 days in advance of the date, time and place of your hearing. If you are not represented by an agent, you are entitled to one postponement of the hearing to a later date without showing cause. The ARB begins hearings around May 15 and generally completes them by July 20. Start and end dates can vary from appraisal district to appraisal district.

At least 14 days before your protest hearing, the appraisal district will mail a copy of this pamphlet; a copy of the ARB procedures; and a statement that you may inspect and obtain a copy of the data, schedules, formulas and any other information the chief appraiser plans to introduce at your hearing. This information is not required to be delivered 14 days before a hearing; it only must be available for inspection and copying.

You can appear at the ARB hearing in person, by affidavit or through an agent. If you fail to appear, you may lose the right to be heard by the ARB on the protest and the right to appeal. If you or your agent fails to appear at a hearing, you are entitled to a new hearing if you file with the ARB, not later than four days after your hearing date, a written statement showing good cause for failing to appear and request a new hearing. Good cause is defined as a reason that includes an error or mistake that was not intentional or was not the result of conscious indifference and will not cause undue delay or injury to the person authorized to extend the deadline or grant a rescheduling.

What Steps to Take to Prepare for Protest Hearing
You should consult with the appraisal district staff about your property’s value. Ask questions about items you do not understand. The appraisal district is required to provide copies of documents that you request, at a cost not to exceed $25 total for all the copies it makes for each property you protest, or $15 for each residence. Many appraisal districts provide a great deal of the information on their Web sites at no charge.

If you are protesting the appraisal of your home, you can view the video How to Present your Case at an Appraisal Review (ARB) Hearing on the Comptroller’s Web site at: http://www.window.state.tx.us/taxinfo/proptax/ARBvid/plater.html.

Observing the following tips can also help in achieving a successful appeal:
• Be on time and prepared for your hearing. The ARB may place time limits on hearings.
• Stick to the facts and avoid emotional pleas. The ARB has no control over the appraisal district’s operations or budget, tax rates for local taxing units, inflation or local politics; addressing these topics in your presentation wastes time and will not help your case.
• Review the ARB hearing procedures. After you receive the ARB hearing procedures, take time to become thoroughly familiar with them and be prepared to follow them.
• Present your information in a simple and well-organized manner. You and the appraisal district staff are required to exchange evidence at or before the hearing. Photographs and other documents are useful. You should take an appropriate number of copies so that each ARB member and the appraisal district representative receive one.

The date of your appraisal is Jan. 1, so you should make sure that changes made before that date are included in the appraisal. Improvements or damage to your property after Jan. 1 should not be part of the appraisal or the protest.

If you are protesting the value of business property or other appraisal matters, you should have evidence to support your opinion of value. Sales data may not be available or relevant, but income and expense information may be useful.

The appraisal district has the burden of proof in value and unequal appraisal disputes. An appraiser’s job is to appraise property at its market value, equitably and uniformity.

What if you are Dissatisfied with the ARB’s Decision
After the ARB rules on your protest, it will send a written order by certified mail. If you are dissatisfied with the ARB’s findings, you have the right to appeal the decision. Depending on the facts and type of property, you may be able to appeal to the state district court in the county in which your property is located; to an independent arbitrator appointed by the comptroller; or, in certain counties and under limited circumstances, to the State Office of Administrative Hearings (SOAH).

You may appeal through binding arbitration if your property is valued at $1 million or less. You may also use binding arbitration for your residence homestead regardless of its appraised value. To request binding arbitration, you must file a Request for Binding Arbitration form with the appraisal district, along with a deposit check payable to the Comptroller of Public Accounts. The deposit is $500 for standard arbitration or $250 for expedited arbitration. An expedited arbitration limits each party to one hour of argument. All but $50 of your deposit will be refunded to you if the arbitrator sets your value at an amount closer to your opinion of value than to the ARB’s value. If not, the deposit is used to pay the arbitrator’s fee. You must exercise the arbitration option not later than 45 days after the date you receive the ARB’s notice of its decision.

Under a pilot program, property owners in Bexar, Cameron, Collin, Denton, El Paso, Fort Bend, Harris, Montgomery, Nueces, Tarrant and Travis counties may appeal ARB orders for real or personal properties with values of more than $1 million to SOAH. To appeal, you file a notice with the chief appraiser not later than 30 days after the date you receive the ARB’s notice of its decision and file a $1,500 deposit not later than the 90th day after you receive the ARB’s notice of the order. This legislation limits the pilot program to 3,000 appeals and allows the award of attorney’s fees. The pilot program expires Jan. 1, 2014.

Alternatively, you may appeal the decision to the state district court in which your property is located. You must file the appeal no later than 60 days after you receive the final ARB order.

In all types of appeals, you are required to pay taxes equal to the undisputed value of your property before the delinquency date.

What is the Comptroller’s role in the protest process?
You should know that the Comptroller does not have oversight responsibility over the ARB and has no authority to investigate complaints about the ARB. Any complaints about the ARB or its members should be directed to the ARB itself or to the appraisal district board of directors. The Comptroller’s office has no direct involvement in the protest process.

Where can you get more information?
This publication does not cover all aspects of the ARB protest process or property taxes. For more information, please see the following resources:
• Taxpayer Bill of Rights;
• Valuing Property;
• Setting Tax Rates;
• How to Protest;
• Paying Your Taxes;
• Appraisal Review Board Manual; and
• Texas Property Tax Code.

This information is found on the Comptroller’s Property Tax Assistance website. It provides property owners a wealth of information on the appraisal and protest process at http://www.window.state.tx.ustaxinfo/proptax/. You may also contact the Comptroller’s Information Services Team for assistance at ptad.cpa@cpa.state.tx.us or at 1-800-252-9121, enter “2” for the main menu, and the “1.”

Property Tax Assistance Division Information Services Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts Publication #96-295. Revised January 2012. http://www.window.state.tx.us/taxinfo/proptax/remedy12/
Call toll free in Texas (800) 252-9121. In Austin, call (512) 305-9999.

For additional copies write:
Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts
Property Tax Assistance Division
P.O. Box 13528
Austin, Texas 78711-3528
Sign up to receive e-mail updates on the Comptroller topics of your choice at www.window.state.tx.us/subscribe.

The Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts is an equal opportunity employer and does not discriminate on the basis of race, color, religion, sex, national origin, age, or disability in employment or in the provision of any services, programs or activities.

In compliance with the Americans with Disabilities Act, this document may be requested in alternative formats by calling the appropriate toll-free number listed above, or by calling:
(512) 463-4600 in Austin – (512) 475-0900 (FAX).

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Mortgage Options for Foreign Nationals

There are mortgage programs that are aimed specifically for foreign nationals moving to the United States.  If you are a foreign national moving to the United States to live in the Houston area, contact RREA’s in house lender to get qualified for a loan specialized to your needs.  Properties that are eligible for foreign national loans are both single family homes and condominiums.  These loans do require at least 25% down payment.  Call RREA today at 281.288.3500 to talk with our in house lender about qualifying and to our Realtors who can help you purchase a home.  Realtors work differently in Texas than in other parts of the world, so talk with a Realtor before you purchase a new or resale home in the states.

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WBM #59 – Downpayment Assistance

This week’s White Board Monday is on various forms of downpayment assistance. Enjoy!

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Get Rid of Junk Mail!

Some people think you have to buy a home and move just to get rid of junk mail.  Not true – you can complete and submit a few forms from the websites below and it can take effect in less than a month!

 

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Join Canongate and Buy a Home in The Woodlands, Texas

Would you like to live on a golf course or close enough to golf anytime?  Join Canongate in The Woodlands and you may have membership to five courses;  The Oaks, Panther Trail, Lake Windcrest, South Shore Harbour, and Magnolia Creek.  At RREA, our agents know The Woodlands housing market and can help you find the perfect home for your family.  Then you can join Canongate and enjoy family dining, golf lessons, and low guest rates.  Call RREA today to get started 281.288.3500.

 

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Do You NEED Flood Insurance in Houston?

Below is an article I found the the April 2012 Houston Family Magazine.  I thought it was good information for people moving to the Houston area who are not used to our flood plane and rainy seasons and do not know the history of our area.  Hope you enjoy this information as much as I did.  Parts of it were kindly provided by the Harris County Flood Control District.

When the Allen brothers founded Houston in 1836, they established the town at the confluence of Buffalo and White Oak Bayous, an area extremely susceptible to flooding.

The new settlers didn’t like this natural flooding because it wasn’t conducive to building towns or farming the land.  They set out to “drain” the land, and to clear it for agriculture or timber for construction.

However, there is a big difference between drainage and flooding.  They did it without any purpose, other than to make the water go away in a reasonable time and to make the channels flow downhill.  As the channels got deeper, they also got wider.  The early residents didn’t plan with any particular rainfall amount in mind.

Harris County suffered through 16 major floods from 1836 to 1936, some of which crested at more than 40 feet, turning downtown Houston streets into raging rivers.  After the tremendously destructive floods of 1929 and 1935, however, citizens clamored for solutions.  Estimated property damage in 1929 was $1.4 million, a staggering sum at the time.  Losses more than doubled in 1935, when seven people were killed and the Port of Houston was crippled for months.  Twenty-five blocks of the downtown business district were inundated, as well as 100 residential blocks.  If ever there was a county in need of flood assistance, this was it.

All across America during the 1920s and ‘30s, the federal government was financing huge water infrastructure projects, damming great rivers at a pace no previous civilization could have imagined.  Major projects were funded through the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, which for years employed the nation’s only civil engineering experts.  Houston’s commercial future hinged on its ability to tap into this federal machine, but it needed a local agency to serve as a sponsor.

On April 23, 1937, after local leaders submitted a petition with dramatic photographs of past flood devastation, the 45th Texas Legislature unanimously passed the bill which created the Harris County Flood Control District.

Since the District’s creation, close to 30 damaging floods have occurred in the area, resulting in hundreds of millions of dollars in damages in just under 70 years.  However, after the 1940’s, the Harris County area did not suffer what would be considered a widespread, regional flood, that is, until June 2001.

When Tropical Storm Allison suddenly formed 80 miles off the coast of Galveston, Texas, on Tuesday, June 5, 2001, no one expected that, five days later, it would go on record as one of the most devastating rain events in the history of the United States.  Neither historical data nor weather forecasts could adequately predict this extraordinary storm that would dump as much as 80 percent of the area’s average annual rainfall over much of Harris County, simultaneously affecting more than 2 million people.  When the rains finally eased, Allison had left Harris County, Texas, with 22 fatalities, 95,000 damaged automobiles and trucks, 73,000 damaged residences, 30,000 stranded residents in shelters, and over $5 billion in property damage in its wake.  Leaving 31 counties with declared disasters in Texas, Allison went on to spread disaster declarations to Louisiana (25 parishes), Florida (nine counties), Mississippi (5 counties) and Pennsylvania (2 counties).  Allison was the costliest tropical storm in the history of the United States.

Harris County doesn’t have earthquakes…doesn’t have blizzards…doesn’t have avalanches.  We have flooding.  A major flood still occurs somewhere in Harris County about every two years.  Most of the flooding is in areas developed prior to the current understanding of flood potential and prior to regulations restricting construction in flood-prone areas.  Fortunately, since the 1970’s, there has been flood insurance to ease the financial impact of flooding.  Despite tremendous flood damage reduction projects that have indeed reduced the risk of flooding, more flood insurance funds have been paid here than in any other National Flood Insurance Program-participating community.

 

 

 

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