WALNUT CREEK, Calif. (PMI Group) – Mortgage insurance firm PMI Group has estimated the future state of Texas’ housing markets in its fourth quarter 2008 U.S. Market Risk Index.

The report focuses on where markets will be two years from now and calculates risk of home price depreciation.

The firm predicts that Austin–Round Rock has a risk index of 17.4, or a 17.4 percent chance of experiencing price declines in its housing market within the next two years. That is up from its 5.4 percent chance in third quarter 2008.

San Antonio has a risk index of 3.8, up from its 1 percent chance of price depreciation.

Houston–Sugar Land–Baytown has a risk index of 2.7, up from less than one in third quarter 2008.

Dallas–Fort Worth has the lowest risk index of the major Texas metros, with a 2.5 percent chance that its home prices will decline over the next two years, up from a less than 1 percent chance.

For the complete PMI U.S. Market Risk Index, see PMI’s fourth quarter statistics.