Tag Archives: texas

Texas Foreclosure, Delinquency Rates Down NEW

WASHINGTON, D.C. (Mortgage Bankers Association) – Foreclosure and delinquency rates were down across the board for Texas in first quarter 2012, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s National Delinquency Survey, which was released Wednesday.
Texas’ overall delinquency rate dropped from 9.1 percent in fourth quarter 2011 to 7.3 percent in first quarter 2012, the lowest rate since second quarter 2008.
Mortgages seriously delinquent (90 or more days delinquent or in foreclosure) declined from 4.7 percent in fourth quarter 2011 to 4.4 percent in first quarter 2012.
Loans in foreclosure increased slightly from 1.8 percent to 1.9 percent. However, loans 90 or more days delinquent fell to 2.5 percent in first quarter 2012 from 3 percent in fourth quarter 2011 and from 2.8 percent in first quarter 2011.

Luxury Downtown Loft Available Across from Minute Maid Ballpark NEW

Looking for a luxury penthouse in Downtown Houston? This loft comes completely furnished with an amazing view of the new soccer stadium and Minute Maid Park. With a wrap around balcony on this corner top unit, you will love this two story condo that has a game room, stainless steel and island kitchen, living area, two baths, and two bedrooms. Details below and a video:

505 Bastrop St, Houston, TX 77003 (MLS # 13816700)

(all data current as of 5/24/2012)
Price $599,000
Beds 2
Baths 2 full
Home size 2,328 sq ft
Lot Size n/a
Days on Market 45
D-town luxury living at its finest! Perfect 2-st Penthouse, 2 bdrm finished loft w/enclosed beams/pipes, gamerm up has granite bar w/sink,wine cooler,wine glass rack & ice mker. Kit w/isl. raisd bar w/granite, slate backsplash, stainless appl. & kegerator. Tiled downstairs w/slate bathrms, carpet bdrms, Oak hardwood stairs & upstairs. 2 prime prkg spaces, add l storage closet/deep freezer, lg closets, wrap around balcony facing Minute Maid. Fully furnished, goes w/the sale. Amazing skyline view!

Property Type(s): Mid/Hi-Rise Condo

Last Updated 4/24/2012 Tract The Stanford A Condominium
Year Built 2002 Community South
Garage Spaces n/a County Harris
Total Parking 2

Schools

School District Houston

Additional Details

Features

1st Lien Assumable No
Appliances Dryer Included, Full Size, Refrigerator, Washer Included
Building Access Card/Code Access
Cooling System Desc Central Electric
Defects No Known Defects
Description 4-8 Story Building
Disclosures Sellers Disclosure
Exterior Description Storage
Financing Available Cash Sale, Conventional, FHA, VA
Flooring Carpet, Slate, Tile, Wood
Front Door Faces South
Heating System Description Central Electric
Interior Features Breakfast Bar, Brick Walls, Elevator, Fully Sprinklered, Island Kitchen, Refrigerator Included, Tile, Wet Bar
Maintenance Fee Includes Building & Grounds, Insurance Common Area, Limited Access, Porter, Recreational Facilities, Trash
Maintenance Fee Payment Schedule Annually
Master Bath Description Master Bath + Separate Shower, Whirlpool/Tub
Oven Type Electric Oven, Freestanding Oven
Ownership Type Full Ownership
Parking Description Assigned Parking, Auto Garage Door Opener
Prop Type Mid/Hi-Rise Condo
Range Type Electric Range, Freestanding Range
Room Description 1 Living Area, Gameroom Up
Status Active
Street Surface Concrete, Curbs, Gutters
View West

Location

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

Listed with Register Real Estate Advisors

(view all details for MLS #13816700)

Do You Understand Seller Financing in Texas? NEW

Seller Financing is when the seller is the lender.  I works like this – the seller passes ownership of the property to the buyer by deed. The deed describes whatever matters affect the ownership (or title) to the property and contains a promise by the seller to defend the buyer’s ownership (or title) to the property.  The seller gets a note for the difference between the sales price and cash paid by the buyer; this is money owed to the seller. The note generally provides for equal payments of principal (what is required to pay off the amount owed/borrowed over the time provided for repayment) and interest (the extra amount paid, as profit to the seller/lender, for having provided the money). Because of the interest, a note is a type of investment (a way the seller/lender can make money).  The property becomes the security for the note: the seller/lender gets the property back if the buyer does not pay the note as agreed.  The mechanism used to make the property security for the note is a document called the “deed of trust.” This document creates a lien against the property. When the note is paid in full, the seller/lender releases his lien, and the buyer owns the property “free and clear” of the lien. If the note is not paid as agreed, the seller/lender can recover ownership of the property by foreclosing on his lien.

Here are some negotiable points when using seller financing:
• Typically, the buyer pays taxes and insurance. The seller/lender can decide to collect the money to pay these items along with the monthly payment on the note (collecting 1/12th of what will be due and paying the tax or insurance premium when it becomes due) or to allow the buyer to pay these items directly and provide proof of payment. The appropriate provision must be put in the deed of trust.
• If the buyer is late in making the monthly payments due the seller/lender, a late charge (typically 5% of the payment amount if the payment is made more than ten days after it is due) can be collected by the seller/lender along with the payment. The appropriate provision must be put in the note.
• If the buyer wants to pay off the note early, before the scheduled payoff date, the seller/lender, who will not receive all of the interest he would have received over the full term of the note, can charge a prepayment penalty. However, the prepayment penalty cannot exceed the amount of interest the seller/lender would have earned if the note had been paid as scheduled.
• In the event that the buyer wants to sell the property before the note is paid in full, the seller/lender must decide whether he will allow the note to be assumed by a new buyer or require that the note be paid off at the time the buyer sells the property. The appropriate provision must be put in the deed of trust.
o If the seller/lender allows the note to be assumed, there is a requirement that the seller/lender be satisfied regarding the new buyer’s credit and ability to repay the note. The seller/lender must also decide whether the original buyer will remain liable to pay the note or will be released from liability to pay the note.
o If the seller/lender requires that the note be paid off, then a “due on sale clause” is put in the deed of trust.
• If the deed of trust contains a “due on sale clause” and the buyer sells the property without paying the note to the seller/lender, the seller/lender can get ownership of the property back by foreclosing on his lien.
• Prior to the foreclosure process, the buyer would be given certain notices. If the buyer fails to pay what is owed, the property is sold at a public auction to the highest bidder.
o If the property is the principal residence of the buyer, then the buyer must be given a warning notice that the payment under the note is delinquent. The buyer is given 20 days from the date of the sending of the notice to pay what is currently owed. (If the property is not the buyer’s principal residence, then this notice does not have to be given.)
o If the buyer does not pay the delinquent amount in full, then the seller/lender can “accelerate the note”; the seller/lender can say that all money due under the note (whatever is required to pay the note in full) is due. A notice that the note has been accelerated is sent to the buyer.
o A Notice of Foreclosure Sale is filed with the County Clerk and put up (posted) at the place in the county provided for public notice of foreclosure. The Notice of Foreclosure Sale is also sent to the buyer, usually with the notice that the note has been accelerated.
o Foreclosure sales are held on the first Tuesday of each month. The Notice of Foreclosure Sale must give the buyer at least 21 days to pay everything that is due on the note. Therefore, the foreclosure sale will be held on the first Tuesday of the month that occurs more than 21 days after the Notice of Foreclosure is sent.
o The foreclosure process is generally conducted by the Trustee under the deed of trust. If a foreclosure sale does occur, the Trustee takes bids from all interested parties. Usually the seller/lender bids the full amount owed on his note, and usually the seller/lender is the successful bidder. If someone else bids more, that person has to pay cash for the property, and the seller/lender’s note gets paid off.
o The Trustee conveys the property to the successful bidder at the foreclosure sale, and the buyer loses ownership to the property.
• There are two (2) situations which can interfere with the foreclosure process:
o The buyer can file bankruptcy. In this situation, the seller/lender will either be allowed to foreclose, but under the timing allowed in the bankruptcy proceeding, or the note will be paid off in accordance with a plan developed in the bankruptcy proceeding.
o The buyer can die. In this situation, the seller/lender can foreclose after a probate proceeding on the buyer has been started or after the seller/lender can identify the buyer’s heirs-at-law.
• Lender’s title insurance (loan policy). The seller/lender should get a loan policy that insures the lien created by his deed of trust.
o The loan policy protects the seller/lender against title defects, but is particularly useful if the seller/lender wants to sell the note and get cash, rather than waiting for the note to be paid off.
o If obtained at the same time as the owner policy to the buyer, the loan policy only costs an extra $100 plus endorsements. If obtained later, a credit may be given, but the charge will not be as minimal as it would have been if the loan policy was obtained at the same time as the owner policy to the buyer.

Want to know more about Contract for Deed?

Below is the process:
1. The seller and buyer execute a document called a Contract for Deed. By law, the document must be recorded in the real property records of the county.

2. The document provides that the seller/lender does not provide a deed to the buyer until the purchase price for the property is paid in full. The payment of the purchase price is similar to payments on a note, and the payment schedule is set out in the Contract for Deed.
3. If the buyer does not make the payments set out in the Contract for Deed, the seller/lender can take possession of the property.
a. If the buyer has paid less than 48 payments or less that 40% of the purchase price on the Contract for Deed, he is given a notice of delinquency. If he does not pay the delinquency within 30 days, the seller/lender can cancel the Contract for Deed, take possession of the property, and record a notice canceling the Contract for Deed in the real property records of the county.
b. If the buyer has paid more than 48 payments or more than 40% of the purchase price on the Contract for Deed, he is given a notice of delinquency. If he does not pay the delinquency within 60 days, the seller/lender can foreclose in the same way that a deed of trust would be foreclosed.

Some considerations:
• The risk to the buyer is that the seller/lender may do something to affect the title before the buyer can pay off the purchase price and get the deed from the seller/lender. Recording the Contract for Deed protects the buyer against any creditors of the seller/lender that have rights arising after the date that the Contract for Deed is recorded.
• The Contract for Deed is often used when the buyer does not qualify for a loan at the time of sale but expects to obtain a loan in the foreseeable future.
• Title insurance may be issued on a Contract for Deed transaction. Only an Owner Policy is issued (because there is no note and lien, just a contract for the buyer to pay money and the seller/lender to convey title sometime in the future). The insureds under the policy are both the seller and the buyer.
• A real estate commission can be collected on a Contract for Deed transaction.

Rent to Own in Texas

Don’t do it!  There are many reasons why I recommend seller financing over rent to own in Texas.

If a buyer does not have adequate funds for a down payment and has poor enough credit or income to keep a lender from offering them a loan, I don’t think they should be purchasing a home.  If they do have the income or the down payment, regardless of credit, then seller financing is a great option for them.  I don’t believe a landlord should offer to sell to someone that has poor credit, limited down payment, and unsteady employment.  That sounds like trouble to me – so I would never recommend this to one of my landlords or sellers.

If a tenant needs more time to get adequate financing, then I feel they should  purcahse a home at a later date – that is my opinion.  What if they are never able to get their credit in better shape and now the seller/landlord has agreed to sell their house to this renter?

It doesn’t help that ForSaleByOwner.com is now offering a lease to own advanced search option.  Other states that have different real estate laws, may be more suitable for rent to own tenants than Texas.

All rent to own contracts should be written up by attorneys or atleast reviewed by a real estate attorney.  The contract has to have a lease component and a sale component.  They are legal in all the United States, but I do not recommend doing it.

What if the seller is entering foreclosure?  Would you the tenant buyer know it?  If they got foreclosed on, you’d lose all your equity and get booted out of the house.  There has also been fraud associated with rent to own transcations.

Now for more down side to buyers – what if prices go down and you are locked into purchasing the home for more than it’s worth.  What if interest rates go way up?  If you don’t buy the home, then you lose all your money that was supposed to be going to the down payment.  Some contracts say that if buyers are late on a payment, that payment cannot count towards the down payment.

Realtors don’t have promulgated forms for rent to own options, so you have to pay an attorney to write it up.  Do you know everything you need to put in that contract to protect you and your property?  Neither do I.  That’s why I encourage rent to own buyers to instead use the option of Seller Financing.   Seller Financing can be completed on Realtor promulgated forms and all title company attorneys can write these up easily.  I believe seller financing is a better option for both sellers and buyers/renters.  It’s not just about the forms.  The forms are there because seller financing is more simplistic.  The buyer takes possession right away.  They don’t have to wait to own the property.

If you want to rent to own a home, I recommend you set up seller financing if you are in the state of Texas.  Call me if you want more details.  I can explain better over the phone – 281.288.3500.  Let me know if you want the buyer or seller’s point of view!

 

Tips for Safe Summer Grilling

I was shopping in Kroger and picked up one of their pamphlets off the meat market counter and thought you might like to have this info, too.  Now that summer is fast approaching, it’s a great time to start grilling!  I love Kroger’s meat market!

1.  REFRIGERATE fresh meat promptly.

- USE a cooler or chill bag to keep meat cold on the way home from the store or outside by the grill, especially on warm
days.

- SET your refrigerator at home to 40° F.

- THAW or marinate beef, pork and poultry in the refrigerator, not on the kitchen
counter.

- KEEP cold food and perishables on ice at picnics and cookouts.

- PLACE leftover cooked foods in a refrigerator or cooler with ice within two hours.

2. CLEAN hands & surfaces often.

- WASH hands with warm water and soap for 20 seconds before and after handling food.

- WASH cutting boards, dishes and utensils with hot soapy water after preparing each food item.

- USE paper towels and soap to clean kitchen surfaces often.  Or clean cloth towels frequently in your washing machine’s hot
cycle to kill bacteria.

3. DON’T cross contaminate.

- SEPARATE fresh meat from other food in your grocery cart, shopping bags, in the refrigerator and by the grill.

- KEEP cutting boards and utensils separate to prevent spreading germs.

- PLACE cooked food on a clean plate – never on a plate that held raw meat.

4.  COOK to a safe temperature.

- USE a food thermometer every time you cook fresh beef, pork and poultry to reach its
proper internal temperature and kill harmful bacteria.

- COOK ground beef and pork to 160° F, and cook ground turkey and chicken to 165°
F.

- CHECK this cooking temperature guide to safely grill other cuts of fresh beef, pork and poultry.

- REMEMBER:  You can never tell if meat is cooked properly by looking at it.

 

Safe Cooking Temperatures

Internal temperature as measured with a food thermometer.

Ground Meat

Beef, Pork, Veal, Lamb                       160° F

Turkey, Chicken                                  165° F

Fresh Beef, Veal,
Lamb

Medium Rare                                      145° F

Medium                                              160° F

Well Done                                           170° F

Poultry

Chicken, Turkey, whole                       165° F

Poultry parts                                       165° F

Duck & Goose                                     165° F

Stuffing (cooked alone or in bird)       165° F

Fresh Pork

All Pork                                                160° F

Ham

Fresh (raw)                                          160° F

Pre-cooked (to reheat)                       140° F

Relocating to The Woodlands, Texas?

The Woodlands, Texas is a lovely place to live just north of Houston.  This master planned community offers a lifestyle with art, entertainment, and healthy living.  Here you will find wine bars, restaurants, entertainment, and art scattered among the landscape.  It began in the 1970′s and has grown significantly in recent years.  Currently, there is very little commercial property left for businesses to move to The Woodlands.  There are both resale homes and new construction to choose from if you are relocating.  With a variety of home builders to choose from the prices range from $100 Thousand to $2 Million.  Hiking and bike trails run through all the villages and there are many parks.  It is a nature preserve full of greenbelts and wooded forest.  If you like to golf, you will have three courses to choose from.

When visiting The Woodlands make sure you take both a trolly ride and a water taxi.  These tours offer newcomers a great perspective of the area.  The Woodlands Mall and Market Street offer lots of shopping, dining choices, and entertainment.  The Woodlands houses the Cynthia Woods Mitchell Pavilion is one of the most popular outdoor amphitheaters in the world.  At night, Waterway Square is a great tourest attraction.  The large water wall with dancing columns of water and fountains are choreographed to music with colored lights.

The Woodlands has so much to offer.  If you work downtown, you can get to Houston by taking I-45 South or the Hardy Toll Road.  However, there are many employment opportunites in The Woodlands.

Below is a video of The Woodllands.  If you need a Realtor to help guide you through the forest, give us a call at RREA 281.288.3500.  You will be glad you did!

 

Shenandoah Visitors Center

Whether you are relocating to Conroe, The Woodlands, or Spring area; Do you need local information? Do you already live here, are stuck in a rut of doing the same thing over and over? Would you like to branch out with new ideas of where to play, shop, or dine? Do you need ideas of where to travel right here within our Lone Star State of Texas? Keep reading! I have just the spot for you to check out that will give you all kinds of ideas.

I confess, I was stuck in one of those do the same ‘ole thing over and over ruts myself. I started my day off with the idea – let’s see what is right here in my area of Montgomery County. I wanted to know what I can do new and then share my learned information. First stop was at the Shenandoah Visitors Center which, by the way, is open 7 days a week 8am-5pm.

Traveling on Interstate 45, Shenandoah is just 35 miles north of Houston and only 20 minutes north from Bush Intercontinental Airport. Shenandoah may be small in population but it makes a Big Impact on the Commercial Development for our entire community in Montgomery County. Just click on the home website for the Shenandoah Visitors Center and you will find tabs of :

  • “Where to Shop” – Ideas both locally in Shenandoah such as The Portofino Shopping Center, it also includes “Area Shopping” – The Woodlands Mall, and Old Town Spring. New information to me was The Swim Shop of the Southwest, located inside the CISD Natatorium.
  • “Where to Stay” – Shenandoah offers seven hotels.
  • “What to Do” – choose from a drop down list of Recreation, Cultural, Entertainment and Sports Facilities.
  • “Where to Dine” – some of my favorite Restaurants are on this list, now to try something new …

While inside the Visitors Center located at 19265 David Memorial Drive, Shenandoah, TX 77385 be sure to ask the attendant for local coupons. I am thrilled to have received the coupon book full of dollar savings $ specials to use right here within the home territory! I also picked up pamphlets that give local information:

  • Dine – Fine Dining, Fast Food, or something in between in Shenandoah.
  • Main Event Entertainment Shenandoah
  • Conroe Texas Visitors Guide
  • Lake Conroe Event Center
  • Market Street The Woodlands
  • Current – What’s New and Happening For Visitors in The Woodlands

Those were just some of the local ideas. In addition the Visitors Center is recognized by the State of Texas as a Texas Tourism Information Center because it is stocked with information from across the Lone Star State. This is a good starting point to plan your next road trip!

Now … think about it … it’s time to move and where are you going to live? That’s information I can help you with!

On the Lake at Lake Forest Falls, Conroe Texas

I have one of Conroe’s best kept secrets. Keep reading and you will find out about an 80+ acre lake that is convenient to the Lake Conroe area, yet private (homeowners only) with the tranquil luxury of less traffic on the lake. As the end of our school year approaches and the summer brings water levels up, if you are looking for a peacefully quiet spot to fish, use your motor boats, ski and jet ski – then I have just the property to tell you about!

From I-45 traveling west on Highway 105 approximately 9 miles, located on the south side, is the quaint neighborhood of Lake Forest Falls. This tucked away neighborhood in Montgomery County has a private 80+ acre lake. There is a large earthen levee on the east side of the lake which is spring fed and also collects run off from area creeks Home owners are allowed to use motor boats, ski and jet-skis on the lake. Members of the Lake Forest Falls Home Owners Association also enjoy a swim island, boat launch and lots of little parks in the neighborhood.

Have you imagined this being the view of the swim island from your personal waterfront backyard? I had a private tour with Kathy King, the listing agent for the property at 13300 Southshore Drive in Lake Forest Falls. From the moment we pulled into the driveway I was mesmerized by the view in front of me. Tall trees hide much of the property from the front, yet it opens to the recreational lake.

Once inside the property I admired the hardwood floors and tall windows which overlook the lake view from the Great Room. Speaking of lake view, all north facing windows have lake view. To see all photos and information regarding this dream home click this address: 13300 Southshore Drive Conroe, Texas 77304. Call me right away for a showing, or put on your calendars the information for an Open House given at the bottom of this blog post.

Additionally, you don’t even need a key to enter the unattended Secret Garden. Simply walk under the arbor and follow the stones.

The Secret Garden Pathway leads to a 3rd waterfront lot that belongs to the Guest Home! The Guest Home priced separately at an additional $110,000 is currently only available with the purchase of the main home. The Guest Home features quarters with one bedroom, an open concept area with kitchen and living room. Be ready to simply dissolve in one of the rocking chairs, gaze through windows that face the lake and dream this entire property into your forever-after.

Open House: I will be co-hosting an Open House at this property Saturday, May 12th, 1pm – 4pm.
If you are unable to make the scheduled open house be sure to contact me to arrange your private showing.

Here is the listing:

13300 Southshore Dr, Conroe, TX 77304 (MLS # 4373882)

(all data current as of 5/24/2012)
Price $389,000
Beds 3
Baths 2 full, 1 half
Home size 2,964 sq ft
Lot Size n/a
Days on Market 33
Tucked away on approx 2/3 acre this fantastic property offers as much beauty outside as it does inside. A secret garden that opens up to huge water frontage & open views of the community lake where you can enjoy great boating, skiing & a swim island too. Enter the home to gleaming hardwood floors & soaring windows. Spacious kitchen w/double ovens. Fireplace, built-ins & lake views everywhere! Lots of room to play & breathe! Shopping, dining & Lake Conroe only minutes away if you must. But why?

Property Type(s): Single-Family

Last Updated 5/18/2012 Tract Lake Forest Falls
Year Built 1997 Community Montgomery County NW
Garage Spaces 2.0 County Montgomery
Total Parking 2

Schools

School District Conroe
Elementary School Conroe
Jr. High School Conroe
High School Conroe

Additional Details

Features

1st Lien Assumable No
Bedroom Description Master Bed - 1st Floor
Cooling System Desc Central Electric, Zoned
Defects No Known Defects
Disclosures Sellers Disclosure
Energy Features Ceiling Fans
Exterior Construction Brick & Wood
Exterior Description Back Yard, Patio/Deck, Sprinkler System
Financing Available Cash Sale, Conventional, FHA, VA
Fireplace Description Wood Burning Fireplace
Flooring Carpet, Tile, Wood
Foundation Description Pier & Beam
Front Door Faces South
Garage Description Attached Garage
Garage/Carport Desc Auto Garage Door Opener
Heating System Description Central Gas
Interior Features Alarm System - Owned, Breakfast Bar, Drapes/Curtains/Window Cover, Dryer Included, High Ceiling, Refrigerator Included, Washer Included, Wet Bar
Lot Description Waterfront, Wooded
Maintenance Fee Mandatory
Maintenance Fee Payment Schedule Annually
Master Bath Description Double Sinks, Master Bath + Separate Shower
Number Of Unit Stories 2
Oven Type Double Oven, Electric Oven
Ownership Type Full Ownership
Prop Type Single-Family
Property Type Free Standing
Range Type Electric Range
Restrictions Deed Restrictions
Roof Description Composition
Room Description 1 Living Area, Breakfast Room, Formal Dining, Gameroom Up, Study/Library
Status Active
Style Description Traditional
Utility Room Description Utility Rm in House
Washer Dryer Connections Electric Dryer Connections, Washer Connections
Water Sewer Description Public Water, Septic Tank
Waterfront Features Bulkhead, Lakefront

Location

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

Listed with Keller Williams Realty Conroe Lake Conroe

(view all details for MLS #4373882)

Benders Landing Estates Now For Sale!

Currently Benders Landing has opened up thier estates section and is selling lots for future homes. If you are interested in purchasing a one to two acre lot in Spring, Texas, this is a fabulous community. Close to the Hardy Toll Road, it offers convenient access to The Woodlands and Houston. Purchase your lot now and build later. There are only a few lakefront lots left, so if you prefer to be on the water, call us today! Most are wooded lots. There are no MUD taxes in Benders Landing. This community is only 5 miles to the new ExxonMobil Headquarters. So go ahead and buy now and build later! Lots are going fast. If you want to be outside of the estates section, there are many resale lots also available in Benders Landing. Call us today at 281.288.3500 to find out more. See video below for more information on this community.

Bubble Radar

Below is a reprint of an Article by Ali Anari that was found in the July 2011 Tierra Grande Magazine – I think this is great information for consumers and real estate professionals!

During the past decade, Americans witnessed a home price bubble develop and then burst.  The aftermath showed how broadly these bubbles impact the U.S. economy.

To monitor real estate price movements leading to price bubbles, a Real Estate Center research program developed economic indicators that help detect bubbles at both the national and regional levels.

Detecting Bubbles

Real estate bubbles are rapid rises in real estate prices not related to or driven by economic fundamentals, followed by rapid price declines.  In residential real estate markets, property rents, family income and population are economic fundamentals for house prices.  That is, in the long run, home prices are driven mainly by these three economic indicators.  In the short run, the availability and costs of residential mortgage loans, changes in local job markets and imbalances between housing supply and demand can boost home prices, though these are not economic fundamentals.

Economists have developed several economic indicators for monitoring and forecasting real estate price movements by investigating the relationships between economic fundamentals and real estate prices.  Comparisons of long-term real estate price forecasts with their short-term price fluctuations can provide insights into the probable directions of prices.

The Real Estate Center has developed two major economic indicators for monitoring residential real estate prices:  housing costs as a percentage of total family income; and, sales-price-to-rent ratio.  A Center research study (see Center Publication 1944, “Consumer Spending Survey:  Texas Downturn had an Upside”) found that the larger the share of housing expenditures in consumers’ budgets in large metro areas, the more home prices declined from 2007 to 2009.  That study showed the importance of monitoring the percentage of family income spent on housing as a leading indicator for future home price movements.  This indicator offers insights into the likely growth rates of home prices in a region.

Recently released 2009 housing data from the U.S. Census Bureau allowed the Center to investigate whether changes in home prices in Texas metropolitan areas from 2007 to 2009 were related to share of housing costs in family incomes.  The research shows that home price appreciation was lower in Texas cities where housing costs represented a larger portion of family income.

The sales-price-to-rent ratio also can predict real estate price bubbles.  This idea is borrowed from asset pricing literature and the stock market, where the ratio of stock prices to dividends, earnings or profits is used to determine whether stock prices are overvalued or undervalued.  Stock prices are the discounted values of expected future earnings–the larger the expected future earnings, the higher the stock prices.  If expectations prove unrealistic, stock prices generally fall.

Price-to-rent ratios in real estate markets resemble stock-price-to-earnings ratios in stock markets.  Large ratios of home prices to annual rents are indications of potential home price bubbles.  Estimating price-to-rent ratios for Texas metropolitan areas and comparing them with national averages, the Center asserted in two previous articles that the risk of a price bubble in the Texas residential markets was low (see Center publications 1731, “Bubble Talk” [July 2005] and 1854, “Bubble Watch 2008” [April 2008]).

Great Recession Housing Costs, Prices

The median value of owner-occupied housing units in the United States fell 4.7 percent from 2007-09, from $194,000 to $185,000 [see table].  Over the period, only two Texas metro areas, Tyler and Victoria, recorded home price declines.  The median value of owner-occupied housing units in Victoria and Tyler fell 3 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively, from 2007 to 2009.

Odessa had the largest percentage of home price appreciation (28.3 percent) followed by Abilene (13.7 percent), Beaumont-Port Arthur (13 percent), Midland (12.1 percent) and El Paso (11.1 percent).  Home price appreciation in the Odessa and Midland petroplexes likely was influenced by record high oil prices in 2008 when the price of West Texas intermediate crude oil reached an all-time high of $140.20 per barrel.

The state’s larger metropolitan areas also reported home price appreciation during the Great Recession.  Austin-Round Rock experienced the largest increase (6.7 percent) followed by San Antonio (5.5 percent), Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington (3 percent), and Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown (3 percent).

Housing costs include property taxes, insurance expenses, maintenance costs and mortgage costs.  Housing costs as a percentage of total income in all Texas metro areas were lower than the national average of 25 percent, except in Brownsville-Harlingen (26.5 percent), Laredo (28.7 percent) and McAllen-Edinburg-Mission (25.7 percent).  The higher than national average percentages of housing costs in these three metro areas mainly reflect lower total family incomes rather than higher housing costs caused by higher home prices.

Odessa housing costs represented the lowest percentage of income (17.7 percent), followed by Midland (19.6 percent), Beaumont-Port Arthur (19.6 percent) and Longview (20.6 percent).

Among the larger metro areas, Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington had housing costs representing the highest percentage of total family incomes (24.3 percent) followed by Austin-Round Rock (24 percent), Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown (23.3 percent) and San Antonio (22.6 percent), all lower than the national average of 25 percent.

Plotting home price appreciation in the Great Recession against the housing costs as a percentage of total income for Texas metropolitan areas in 2007 reveals a negative relationship between home price appreciation and share of housing costs.  The larger the share of housing costs, the smaller the home price appreciation.

Texas, U.S. Sales-Price-to-Rent Ratios

Sales-price-to-rent ratios for all the state’s metro areas in 2009 were smaller than the national average of 18.3.  Austin-Round Rock ha the largest price-to-rent ratio (17.4) followed by Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington (14.7) and El Paso (14.6).  San Angelo has the smallest price-to-rent ratio (10.1) followed by Odessa (10.3) and Brownsville-Harlingen (10.9).

Comparisons of housing costs as percentages of family income and price-to-rent ratios for the state’s metropolitan areas with the corresponding national averages once again show that the risk of a major home price decline is low in the foreseeable future and that Texas has a healthy residential real estate market.

 

 

 

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The information provided is exclusively for consumers’ personal, non-commercial use, and may not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties consumers may be interested in purchasing. This data is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed accurate by the MLS.

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